How old are people most likely to make a life insurance claim? A new study led by researchers from Universitas Padjadjaran has answered this question using expert insights from Indonesia’s insurance industry. The findings reveal that policyholders are most likely to file claims around the age of 54—a critical insight that can help insurers and policymakers better prepare for the future.
The research, published in the journal Mathematics, taps into the knowledge of seasoned insurance professionals to quantify uncertainty around claim behavior. This approach is especially valuable in a country like Indonesia, where detailed historical data may not fully capture future trends.
Why Age Matters in Life Insurance
Age is one of the most important factors influencing life insurance premiums and claims. As people grow older, their health risks increase. Understanding when claims are most likely to occur helps insurance companies manage risk, set fair premiums, and ensure they can support families when it’s needed the most.
But predicting human lifespans is complex. While mortality rates are higher among the elderly, the study shows that insurance claims peak earlier suggesting that factors like lifestyle, occupation, and health conditions play a significant role.
The findings align with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal 3: Good Health and Well-Being. By identifying the ages at which people are most vulnerable, the study highlights the need for:
- Better health awareness and preventive care for people in their 40s and 50s.
- Financial preparedness and insurance literacy among middle-aged adults.
- Policy interventions that support healthy aging and reduce premature mortality.
How the Study Worked
The research team organized a workshop with four experts from different insurance companies. These professionals, who handle claims regularly, provided their judgments on the typical age at which policyholders make claims.
Using a structured method called the Sheffield Elicitation Framework (SHELF), the researchers translated these expert opinions into statistical distributions. They then combined them into a single “consensus distribution” using a technique called linear pooling.
The result? A clear peak at 54 years of age.
What the Data Says
Actual insurance claim data from Indonesia supports the experts’ views. Most claims occur between the ages of 52 and 57—right around the predicted peak.
Interestingly, while mortality rates are higher after age 60, insurance claims tend to happen earlier. This could be due to:
- Higher exposure to risk in late middle age (e.g., work-related stress, chronic diseases).
- Greater financial awareness and insurance coverage among younger seniors.
- Cultural or economic factors influencing when claims are submitted.
Why This Matters for the Public
For the general public, this study underscores the importance of:
- Getting insured early – Protection should start before health risks increase.
- Focusing on health – Maintaining good health in your 40s and 50s can reduce risks.
- Planning ahead – Financial and health planning should go hand in hand.
The researchers hope their work will help insurance companies improve their products and services, making them more responsive to the needs of Indonesians. They also call for more studies involving health experts to better understand the causes behind mortality trends.
Source: https://www.mdpi.com/2227-7390/13/2/245
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04_Stat_2025
